week 6

The scenario is a process of deducing the possible future situation via considering the alternative plausible (Mahmoud, et al, 2009). It is reasonable and scientific.屏幕快照 2016-08-30 18.05.46

fig 1. scenario (Mahmoud, et al, 2009)

Moreover, the scenario guides the decision making process into the widely field, which means that the decision can suitable for any situation.

There are some types of scenario, exploratory scenario and anticipatory scenario. Exploratory scenario is a process to deduce the future situation from the past and anticipatory scenarios the process to avoid the possible issue and to achieve the stakeholders’ aim.屏幕快照 2016-08-30 18.06.01.png

fig 2. scenarios types (Mahmoud, et al, 2009)

There are a number of significant arguments in favor of the scenario planning. Firstly, it is beneficial for the formation of a community-based effort that capitalizes on mutual goals and sharable results (Mahmoud, et al, 2009). It provides the process for managers to think about the scenario planning and it also relate to the researches working and scenario. In this process the experiences and knowledge can be shared. It likes a communication.

Secondly, it is the synthesis of stakeholder-defined scenarios and science-based scenarios (Mahmoud, et al, 2009). It combines the stakeholder-defined scenarios and science-based scenarios, which makes the scenario more reasonable and scientific.

The most famous case study is the Shell’ use of the scenario planning. In 1970s, the company successfully avoided the oil crisis via using the scenario planning. It also promoting the increasing use of the scenario planning.

There is however a disadvantage of the scenario planning, which is uncertainty. Indeed, the scenario planning may be a kind of speculation. There is still possibility that may not take place. For example, under the driving of the policy factors, the company finish the scenario and get the plan A. However, with the economic factor changing, the plan A may not be useful. That is the uncertainty. Therefore, considering all factors is beneficial for the scenario planning.

In conclusion, there are advantages and disadvantages of the scenario planning. Having discussed both sides, it seems clear that the advantages outweigh the disadvantages. In light of this, with the unceasing improvement, the scenario may play the more significant role in the future.

Reference

Mahmoud, M; Liu, Y; Hartmann, H; Stewart, S; Wagener, T; Semmens, D; Stewart, R; Gupta, H; Domingues, D; Dominguez, F; Hulse, D; Letcher, R; Rashleigh, B; Smith, C; Street, R; Ticehurst, J; Twery, M; Delden, H; Waldick, R; White, D; Winter, L 2009, A formal framework for scenario development in support of environmental decision-making, Environmental Modelling & Software, Vol. 24, PP. 798-808

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