Climate Change Scenarios over China in the 21st Century

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Due to greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions from the enhanced human activities, the climate change has drawn more and more attention from governments, scientists, and the public all over the world. China as a developing country, has already taken some action to reduce the GHGs emissions. Scenario system plays an important role in climate change prevention.

The changes of surface air temperature and precipitation in the three time-slices of the 21st century under SRES A2, B2 scenarios is firstly analyzed using the regional climate model system JPRECIS, then followed by analysis on the possible change trend of surface air temperature and precipitation under B2 scenario over China.

TABLE 1TABLE 2

from these two table, It can be seen from the average changes of mean temperature and precipitation in the 2080s under B2 scenario over seven regions from PRECIS relative to baseline in Table 2 that summer temperature in Northeast China, North China, and Northwest China would obviously increase, while summer precipitation would slightly increase, the climate would become warmer and drier over these three regions in the northern part of China; and the precipitation over Central China, East China, and South China would increase evidently in summer but slightly in winter, especially the precipitation in South China would obviously decrease in winter, which means that both the flooding in summer and drought in winter would be exacerbated over the three regions in the southern part of China.

Overall, Climate Change Scenarios modle is just at preliminary stage, still contain uncertainties and more work should be done in detail but this method should bring some help to mitigate temperture increase.

REFERENCE LIST:

  1. Xu, YL, Huang, XY, Zhang, Y, Lin, WT, Lin E, 2006, ‘Statistical Analyses of Climate Change Scenarios over China in the 21st Century’, Advances in Climate Change Research, VOL. 2, PP.50-53.
  2. Gao Xuejie, Zhao Zongci, Ding Yihui, et al. 2001, ‘Climate change due to greenhouse effects in China as simulated by a regional climate model’, Adv. Atmos. VOL. 18, NO.6, PP.1224-1230.

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