Scenario Planning

Scenario planning demonstrated a unique tool used for policy design and implementation that I was unfamiliar with. The context of scenario planning being not a predictive modelling system but  one that outlines possible different solutions allowed, me to understand the difference between scenario planning and other climate predictive models I had previously learnt about. The information that I found most interesting was the two various form of scenario planning, where one looks in to possible future outcomes through forecasting whilst the other looks at backcasting and the thought of where do we want to go and how do we get there. I think having these two different underlying themes for scenario planning can add to it’s versatility as a tool for implementing adaptive policy. This is highlighted in the reading for this week by Swanson & Bhadwal (2009) who indicate that scenario plaining offers policy makers a way to view policy design retrospectively, prospectively and comprehensively. Where policy can robust in a range of plausible future scenarios. I feel the overall goal for the use of scenario planning is to achieve adaptive policies that can continue to be effective even with changing circumstances for which that policy was designed for. By understanding and utilizing scenario planning you are more well equipped in dealing with complex environmental issues as well as designing and implementing policies that can deal with those issues.

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